| "Internet time" is a cliché by now, but the shock of Netscape's acquisition by AOL is already starting to fade a bit. Things change quickly, we adapt and move on. What's happening now, we want to know. What's going to happen tomorrow?
In this case, though, last week's news is likely to stick around for a while. The death of Netscape—and the company's acquisition is a kind of death, make no mistake—has repercussions that will affect virtually everyone who uses the Web. Much—most?—of this impact will likely be negative; it's also possible some positive things will result. A key point to remember is that whatever Netscape does will not be the determining factor. Because whatever Netscape does will be determined elsewhere from this point forward.
The Good Guys?
Much has been made of the fact that AOL, Netscape and Sun Microsystems (which will cross-promote with AOL and work to sell Netscape servers) will form a strong alliance, one that just may be capable of challenging Microsoft for ultimate Web dominance. Many people, instinctively, regard that as a Good Thing. But is it?
It's true that both Netscape and Sun have championed "open standards" (even as both have offered proprietary products of their own), and true that Microsoft has famously undermined both Netscape's Navigator and Sun's Java programming language on behalf of its "Windows Everywhere" campaign. Most Web developers would prefer to have their code work on all computer platforms, not just Windows, and Netscape and Sun have a far better record in this regard than Microsoft.
But AOL is driving this deal, not Netscape or Sun. And AOL has had the most closed, proprietary system of all. Yes, the company says it is moving away from its Rainman format toward the wider use of HTML and other Web standards; we'll see. The company has moved slowly to embrace the Web in the past, sending its vast membership out onto the Net with browser technology that invariably lagged behind. Even now, with the Windows-based release of version 4.0, AOL muddies the waters by deploying "the world-renowned" Internet Explorer. It's not a record to inspire confidence in terms of driving Netscape's technologies forward.
Open Source, Case Closed
Mozilla.org, representing the Netscape open-source development effort, continues to offer the promise of forward momentum (the organization was quick to distance itself from Netscape the company, and indeed the whole AOL deal). Much of the technology promised for Netscape 5.0 stems from this open-source group. But Netscape almost certainly would not have released its code in the first place had it not been driven to the wall. Nor would Netscape have capitulated to AOL in its healthier days.
Microsoft, unsurprisingly, is arguing in court—and in its well-funded p.r. and ad campaigns—that AOL's acquisition of Netscape and its alliance with Sun "prove" healthy competition still exists in the software industry. We side squarely with the DOJ on this one: Microsoft's business practices are the reason Netscape has ceased to exist as an independent company, pure and simple. Whatever else results from this deal, we hope that fact has an appropriate impact on the outcome of Microsoft's trial.
As to what else will ultimately happen, your guess is as good as ours. In fact, we'd appreciate hearing what you think about the AOL deal; see below.
We hope AOL acts as a responsible custodian of Netscape's pioneering efforts on the Web—to do so would mean a continued effort to move the technology forward. We hope AOL will work with the Netscape people it has inherited, and with Sun, to advance open standards—and beyond that, universal standards. The Web should be accessible, with basic functionality intact, not just to Windows, Mac and Unix users but, increasingly, to users of Palm and other handhelds, and to users of pagers, telephones and yet-to-be-developed devices. Finally, we hope that in the drive for market share, eyeballs and money, the Web's original promise of a new and unique kind of communication will not be lost.
(Reviewed November 30, 1998)
AOL Alliance Survey
We're particularly interested in hearing from developers but curious about what everyone has to say. Please answer the questions below, or send a note to infonow@writeside.com. Thanks—we'll post a selection of your responses in our next column.
1. Do you think the AOL-Netscape-Sun deal is a positive development for the Web?
Yes
No
Unsure
2. If you answered "yes" to the question above, is it because:
The alliance might counterbalance Microsoft
The alliance might help set standards
Other reason(s)
3. If you answered "no" to the question above, is it because:
The market would be better off if Netscape were independent
AOL won't make good use of Netscape's technology
Other reason(s)
4. What would you like to see happen as a result of the AOL-Netscape-Sun alliance?
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